How the U.S. Lost Europe: The Fallout of American Unpredictability
A cultural analysis of how Trump’s chaotic policies are forcing Europe to build its own defense—without the U.S.
Europe is losing trust in America. European Union leaders, worried about Trump’s unpredictable actions, are ramping up military spending and reinforcing defense plans without the US.
What’s Happening
The EU unveiled a ‘ReArm Europe’ plan to boost defense spending and reduce reliance on the US
European leaders backed joint borrowing of €150 billion ($160 billion) for military investments.
France is considering extending its nuclear deterrent to protect Europe from Russian aggression.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy attended the summit and secured commitments for continued EU aid—without US involvement.
Europe is acting out of necessity because Trump’s erratic foreign policy has shattered the trust that underpinned NATO and transatlantic security. When America froze military aid to Ukraine, European leaders saw the writing on the wall: they were on their own.
Should defense policies be based on trust and commitment?
Should it be based on what’s best for everyone—the nation and the world—or what’s best for the political party in charge?
It all depends on your cultural perspective.
Why It Matters
Americans are generally risk-takers.
They try new things, test out new ideas, change jobs easily, move to new cities and states.
American business is known and admired worldwide for its innovation and fearless charge into the future—a cultural trait in which uncertainty is accepted and even sought after.
But you can’t run a government this way. Governments need to be dependable, stable, and predictable.
America’s leadership used to be certain—the gold standard of stability. Whether you agreed with its policies or not, the world knew what to expect. That certainty made the US the cornerstone of international alliances and the last remaining superpower.
But Trump thrives on chaos. His policies are risky, chaotic, and transactional, and they undermine the certainty that allies rely on.
Cutting off military aid to Ukraine isn’t just about Ukraine — it signals to the world that American support is conditional, temporary, and subject to a leader’s mood.
And that’s a problem.
In cultures that avoid uncertainty — like most of Europe and the world—long-term planning is essential.
Governments need clear commitments, stable policies, and guaranteed security agreements. That is why European nations are increasing military spending and distancing themselves from the new American fickleness.
This is the second time America has flip-flopped. Everyone makes a mistake, but when it comes to the defense and freedom of your country: two betrayals and it’s over. Europeans (and other allies) are adjusting to a world where the US can’t be counted on.
When trust in America’s commitments erodes, so does America’s influence.
For decades, US leadership in NATO and global security depended on a rules-based approach - a high level of certainty. Allies operated under the assumption that treaties, military pacts, and financial aid agreements would be honored.
Trump has replaced that with a variable, leader-dependent approach that swings wildly based on short-term interests and personal grievances.
The result? Europe is moving on, and the US is being left behind:
France openly discusses nuclear protection for Europe, something unthinkable a decade ago.
Germany is rewriting its borrowing rules to fund defense—without US support.
Norway, a historically neutral power, is doubling its military budget to compensate for American uncertainty.
Once these changes happen, they don’t reverse.
America’s unpredictability is forcing Europe to build defense systems that won’t require US backing. As a result, the United States loses its power.
Even if a future administration restores military aid, the damage is already done. Europe has learned that America cannot be counted on. Europe will build its own systems, and the US will lose its power over the Continent.
Trump’s defenders argue that forcing Europe to take responsibility for its own defense is a win. But this isn’t a strategic recalibration—it’s a loss of influence. The US isn’t leading from behind; it’s losing its leadership role altogether.
Europe is adapting. The question is: Will America realize what it’s lost before it’s too late?