Daily Brief: The US Military Is Losing
A cultural analysis of how U.S. isolation under Trump is eroding its military dominance and how new regional alliances are rewriting global security without American leadership.
In today’s email
🌍 As the U.S. steps back, new military alliances take shape
🇮🇳 India’s arms diplomacy targets Russia’s old customers—and U.S. markets
🇨🇳 China and Vietnam conduct joint naval patrols
⚓ Ukraine, U.K., France, and Turkey discuss Black Sea security
🧠 Why culture explains today’s shifting military alliances
📚 Book of the Week
📱 Cultural Perspective on TikTok
🗳️Poll
Opening Cultural Frame
For decades, the US military has shaped the world’s balance of power. Washington armed allies, anchored NATO, and set the tone for global security. That world is vanishing.
Under Trump’s second administration, the US is cutting defense alliances, pulling out of international commitments, and turning inward. In the void, a new pattern is emerging, not a new superpower but a network of regional alignments redefining the future of global security and, thus, trade.
India is expanding arms exports to countries that Russia can no longer supply and the US is uninterested in. China and Vietnam are partnering on the high seas. Ukraine is building Black Sea security with Europe and Turkey.
Where is Washington?
The US isn’t losing a war. It’s losing relevance - relevance it may not be able to regain
Cultural Dimensions Overview
The shifts aren’t just geopolitical—they’re cultural.
US foreign policy has become increasingly transactional and inconsistent—while emerging regional alliances operate on trust, familiarity, and shared threats, particularism vs. universalism.
In nations like China, India, and Turkey, top-down strategic vision drives military expansion. Unlike the US, these hierarchies enable rapid decisions without domestic gridlock, where partisan politics paralyze international engagement (High Power Distance).
Across continents, nations are seeking independence to deal with US unpredictability. Security is no longer guaranteed. It must be self-built (Strategic Autonomy).
🇮🇳 India Offers Cheap Loans for Arms, Targeting Russia’s Traditional Customers
Cultural Lens: Particularism
Archetype: The Visionary
In any other era, this would have been a US move. It was a chance to step into Russia’s sphere of influence for American advantage, a moment to offer arms, build alliances, and expand influence in the Global South.
But Trump’s isolationism has left the door open, and India is walking through it.
Through its EXIM Bank, New Delhi offers long-term, low-interest loans to nations traditionally reliant on Russian weapons. It’s sending more defense attachés, negotiating directly with governments, and pricing its arms well below Western competitors.
This strategy is not against the US or Russia, and it’s FOR India
This is a particularist strategy: relationships over contracts, flexibility over rules.
And it’s Visionary leadership that is not waiting for the future but designing it.
While America seems incapable of international policy, India is happy to step in and build relationships to its advantage.
🇨🇳 China and Vietnam Conduct Joint Naval Patrol in Gulf of Tonkin
Cultural Lens: High Power Distance
Archetype: The Connector
Since WWII, the US Navy has dominated the Indo-Pacific. Today, China and Vietnam patrol the seas without it.
What should have been an opportunity for Washington to strengthen maritime coalitions has become another surrender. As Trump pulls back, severs alliances, and threatens allies, regional powers, even former adversaries, are filling the void and taking control
This joint patrol is symbolic and strategic. China and Vietnam have decades of tension, but they’re navigating together this week.
That’s High Power Distance in action, where powerful states make decisive moves without domestic debate. And it’s the Connector archetype, where old rivalries are put aside in pursuit of shared interests.
In a part of the world that the US once ruled, Trump is handing it over to China.
⚓ Ukraine, U.K., France, and Turkey Discuss Black Sea Security
Cultural Lens: Strategic Autonomy
Archetype: The Bridge Builder
When Russia built its first empire in the 1830s, the world looked to the British Empire for help. When Russia built the Soviet Empire, the world looked to the US for help. Now, Russia is building the New Russian Empire, and Trump is on Putin’s side. Who will help now? Regional alliances.
The US refusal to condemn a deadly Russian missile attack on Ukraine has triggered a realignment. Kyiv is working with the U.K., France, and Turkey to coordinate Black Sea security militarily, diplomatically, and economically.
This is Strategic Autonomy at work. A realization that America is no longer in the fight, so new coalitions must be formed.
It’s the Bridge-Builder archetype in action: not replacing the US with another superpower but negotiating a network of capable nations to fill the void.
Why This Matters
The US was the world’s leader. Trump has decided to pass the torch - but to whom?
American leadership is over, and so is Pax Americana. Many see this as devastating, but… leadership wasn’t taken. It was forfeited. And that’s a far better outcome than world leadership changing because of war.
While Washington isolates itself, others are stepping in:
India is expanding its power and taking a leadership role in weapons markets once dominated by Russia, building alliances through arms and access.
China and Vietnam are forming maritime partnerships in waters that America once patrolled. A new Pax Sino in the Pacific?
Ukraine and Europe are creating their security arrangements, a new Pax Europa?
This is the beginning of a new global system with the US ungracefully passing on power. Will China do a better job than the US? Can Europe stop or at least limit the New Russian Empire? Will India rise and rule as it did a thousand years ago?
Understanding — Not Judging
Many Americans don’t want the US to lose its position of power and influence. Americans like an American world.
But what if you are Chinese? Wouldn’t you want to see a Chinese world? Many Europeans would like to be more independent and out from under the thumb of the US. And while India has never been expansionist, it has never tolerated interference.
Trump’s surrender may be distasteful to many Americans, but it’s exactly what others want.
Book Recommendation for the Week
Peter Hopkirk’s The Great Game, which describes how Russia built its first Empire, provides excellent insight into what we can expect from Russian expansion today and how to handle it.
More Cultural Perspectives on TikTok
China will take the lead - will it do a better job than the US?
America isn’t just handing over the world; it’s handing over democracy.
What’s daily life like in the US? If you aren’t experiencing this now, you will be.
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