Republicans hold the U.S. Senate 53 to 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, because if there is a tie vote, Vice President JD Vance is the tie-breaker. Vance will side with the Republicans regardless of the issue.

Republicans have held both Texas Senate seats for decades. A Democratic victory in Texas would give Democrats another path to a Senate majority.

The Senate:

• Confirms or rejects judges, cabinet secretaries, and ambassadors.

• Approves or blocks treaties.

• Controls committees and subpoenas.

• Tries federal impeachments.

Trump’s allies around the world like Putin, Netanyahu, and Lukashenko will see the result on 3 November as a measure of how long the Trump-Republican program lasts.

Texas chooses between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Paxton is the state attorney general. The Texas House, controlled by his own party, impeached him on 27 May 2023 by a vote of 121 to 23. The Texas Senate acquitted him on 16 September 2023. None of the 16 articles considered received the 21 votes needed for conviction. Talarico is a state representative and a student at Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary. Three polls released in October 2026 (Fox News, Texas Public Opinion Research, Texas Southern University) put Talarico ahead by five points or fewer.

Texas is two cultures, and each votes based on their cultural perspectives. The metro corridor (Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio) votes one way. Rural and exurban Texas votes the other way. Three main cultural dimensions describe the difference.

Honor vs. Dignity (Leung and Cohen). In a Dignity culture, worth is internal; people don’t take insults personally, so disputes go to court, and verdicts are accepted. In an Honor culture, worth depends on one’s reputation, so people must respond personally to an attack. The metro corridor is a Dignity culture. Rural Texas is an Honor culture.

The impeachment is the test. Metro voters see the institutions dealing with the issue. Rural voters see Austin politicians attacking one of their own, and Paxton answered by running for higher office. He did not accept the institutional verdict. He fought back because he sees it as an attack on his honor, regardless of the 121 to 23 House vote against him.

Universalism vs. Particularism (Trompenaars). In a Universalist culture, the rule is the rule; people apply it the same way to everyone, so a candidate’s record decides the vote. In a Particularist culture, the rule depends on who is involved; people apply it differently to their own side, so the candidate’s relationships decide the vote. The metro corridor is a Universalist culture. Rural Texas is a Particularist culture.

Trump’s endorsement is the test. Metro voters see an impeached attorney general with a felony indictment and ask why the rules don’t apply to him. Rural voters see Trump’s endorsement on 19 May 2026 as a reason to support Paxton and more important than the rule of law. Colin Allred ran on the rule in 2024: accountability, moderation, abortion rights. He lost to Ted Cruz by 8.5 points and won 19 of 254 counties. Relationship win in rural Texas.

Traditional vs. Secular-Rational (Inglehart and Welzel). In a Traditional culture, life is organized around religion, family, and obedience to authority, so voters trust the candidate who prays with them. In a Secular-Rational culture, life is organized around science, evidence, and personal choice, so voters trust the candidate who debates with them. The metro corridor is a Secular-Rational culture. Rural Texas is a Traditional culture.

Religion is the test. The last three Democratic nominees, Beto O’Rourke in 2018, MJ Hegar in 2020, and Allred in 2024, were Secular-Rational candidates asking a Traditional state to vote on policy. All three lost. Talarico is different. He is studying to be a Presbyterian minister. He compared his campaign to the biblical David. He campaigns in rural counties. Paxton opens every event with the Pledge of Allegiance, the Texas Pledge, and a prayer. For the first time, both candidates compete for the Traditional vote.

Most likely winner: It is a close call, but the culture is closer to Paxton. Talarico changed one dimension. Paxton still holds two. In 2018, Cruz took 73 percent of the vote in Texas’s 172 rural counties while O’Rourke won the big cities and lost by 2.6 points. No Democrat has won a Texas Senate race since 1988. In 2024, the final polling average put Cruz ahead by approximately 4 points. He won by 8.5 points, showing that polls underestimated his support. Honor cultures show up to answer an attack. Talarico’s seminary training closes the gap. It does not close it enough.

Wednesday: Kansas. Friday: Ohio. Saturday (paid): Michigan and Maine, plus the full Senate count after 3 November.

Get a solid understanding of Trompenaars’ cultural dimensions by purchasing the guide or subscribing to Cultural Perspective (free or paid) and receiving the guide for free.

In the last article, we looked at what Trump and the Republicans have cost American farmers, manufacturers, and workers: foreign customers, closed factories, unbuilt homes, and unharvested crops. Ending a policy does not bring those back.

The question is why a government would abandon long-term prosperity for short-term wins and long-term losses.

The Cost of Short-Term Thinking

This is where culture helps explain what is happening.

Long-Term Orientation vs. Short-Term Orientation (Hofstede) describes how much a society values future benefits over immediate results.

Trump comes from an extreme Short-Term Orientation culture, which emphasizes immediate wins: the number and amount of tariffs, money collected, immigrants deported, government employees dismissed, and military objectives achieved.

But those immediate wins do not make the U.S. stronger or prosperous five or ten years down the road. Instead, they weaken American power and drive the U.S. into poverty.

Tariffs produce some government revenue immediately while driving long-term business out of and away from the U.S. A quick financial gain in tariff revenue of a few billion dollars this year in exchange for a loss of trillions every year forward and the loss of foreign customers that took decades to develop.

Deportation numbers look impressive, but farmers and construction companies pull back or go out of business from lack of workers. A quick political win in exchange for deep financial losses.

Firing federal employees looks positive on a quarterly balance sheet, but eliminates decades of experienced workers whose expertise competently operated the government. Another quick financial gain this year, but in exchange for government services people rely on and which are needed to run a democracy.

Trump and the Republicans have chosen these short-term objectives in exchange for America’s future economic prosperity. These changes will alter the American economy for the long term and, in many cases, permanently. They have manufactured a problem that ordinary economic recovery cannot solve.

What Happens When the Economy Recovers?

Inflation can decline. Interest rates can fall. Consumer confidence can improve.

Those are normal parts of an economic recovery, but Trump and the Republicans have engineered an economic disaster that won’t rebound quickly or easily.

The difference is between a downturn that reduces sales, which slows manufacturing, workers are laid off, and the economy stalls. The government introduces stimulus, sales rise, manufacturing increases, workers are hired, and the economy springs to life.

The Trump-Republican plan makes this typical recovery impossible. The U.S. is suffering not from an economic downturn but from Trump’s trade war. Once the Trump-Republican regime is brought down, there is still no reason to resume the level of trade nations had with the United States.

Europe, for example, purchased American military hardware worth billions of dollars and fueled American manufacturers. In retaliation to Trump’s tariffs and other coercions, they now manufacture it themselves and buy from each other. This is favorable to them. A new American administration won’t change that. Even if the Americans offer extraordinary terms, the Europeans (the world) knows those terms can be revoked anytime. Why take the chance when already trading with reliable partners? Those American jobs are not coming back.

It’s the same scenario for other manufacturers, farmers, and virtually every export and import in the U.S.

The longer the Republicans are in power, the harder it all becomes to recover.

On Saturday, we will consider what these developments mean for America’s future.

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Trump promised Americans lower prices, more jobs, and greater prosperity. He delivered higher prices, fewer jobs, and greater poverty. Past American presidents have done the same. This happens as economic cycles turn and administrations come and go. The economy improves, falters, and gets better again. But this time may be different.

What Trump and the Republicans have done will be longer-lasting and, in some cases, permanent.

Since Trump and the Republicans have taken control:

• Consumer prices are up 3.7% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• Gasoline prices are up 34.2%

• Electricity prices are up 4.4 percent,

• Food prices are up 2.5 percent

• Housing prices continued to climb.

At the same time, inflation-adjusted wages have fallen, and job growth has slowed.

Trump’s trifecta of economic disaster for Americans.

But it’s not just people. Businesses are struggling too.

The USDA forecasts that farmers’ inflation-adjusted profits will decline by $9.1 billion in 2026, a 5.5 percent reduction. Manufacturing growth slowed sharply in the third quarter, while motor vehicle production fell 3 percent in September.

Homebuilders face high material costs, expensive financing, and labor shortages. Agricultural producers face the same problems on top of crippling diesel prices.

These numbers describe an economy in trouble. The American economy has been in trouble before, but what’s different about this trouble is that Trump has created a situation that makes it difficult for the economy to recover. He’s worked to make it long-term at best and permanent if he succeeds.

Here’s how it works: For decades, American farmers built relationships with foreign customers, including China, one of the world’s largest agricultural markets. When tariffs made American soybeans more expensive, Chinese buyers bought more from Brazil. Brazilian growers compete directly with American growers for those customers.

Once a foreign buyer signs long-term contracts with a new supplier and invests in the ports and railways to move the grain, the buyer has little reason to go back. A future president can end the tariffs, but that does not undo contracts or change infrastructure.

Manufacturing follows the same pattern. Higher costs, unpredictable trade policy, and uncertain export markets force companies to cut production or move. When a factory closes, workers lose their jobs, suppliers lose their customers, and the town loses spending and tax revenue. Some factories reopen, some do not.

Construction and agriculture significantly depend on immigrant workers. Deportations and tighter enforcement remove those workers. Ending the enforcement does not bring back the production already lost.

This is Trump’s trifecta: higher prices, fewer jobs, paychecks buying less, and he’s done his best to make it permanent.

Get a solid understanding of Trompenaars’ cultural dimensions by purchasing the guide or subscribing to Cultural Perspective (free or paid) and receiving the guide for free.

A future president can reverse Trump’s policies. But that does not mean America can recover what it has lost.

This week, we examined how Trump’s economic policies have devastated many American workers, farmers, manufacturers, and businesses. We also examined why many of the Trump-Republican administration’s policies will be irreversible. (Yale Budget Lab; Reuters)

But first, what can be fixed.

Read more

We all know that Trump promised to make America richer, stronger, and more powerful. We also know his policies have been a disaster. But how bad are they? How badly have Trump and the Republicans damaged the U.S.

Tariffs. Trump’s tariffs have bankrupted American businesses, permanently eliminated jobs, and driven foreign customers to other suppliers. Many businesses will never reopen; it will take years for jobs to return, and some foreign customers will never buy American products again, even if future presidents eliminate every tariff.

The most damaging part: long-term trade agreements among nations that purposely exclude the U.S.

Immigration. Trump’s deportations have driven workers out of American farms, construction sites, and other businesses, causing labor shortages, lost production, and higher prices. Crops left unharvested are lost forever, homes delayed cannot meet today’s housing needs, and businesses that close because they cannot find workers may never reopen.

The most damaging part: the Republicans have shown that immigrants who are legally protected, following all the rules, and even those eligible for citizenship can be arrested, imprisoned, and deported - immigrants have no legal protection, and immigration may never return to the levels needed to keep America running.

Government agencies. Trump eliminated over a quarter million federal jobs across 22 major agencies, eliminating years of experience and weakening government services. Future presidents can hire new workers, but they cannot restore the years of lost knowledge, delayed research, and public services Americans needed but never received.

The most damaging part: people die.

War with Iran. Trump’s war has depleted American weapons stockpiles, damaged military assets, and weakened America’s ability to fight other wars.

The most damaging part: It has shown the world that Trump or any future president can start a war on a whim, and the government and military will support and fund it even when the U.S. is clearly the aggressor.

Foreign relations. Trump has damaged America’s standing with allies and trading partners, weakening trust built over 80 years. Countries such as Canada are now expanding trade with other nations and reducing their dependence on the United States.

The most damaging part: The U.S. is being replaced in international institutions and BRICS and other coalitions are permanently taking market share and weakening the dollar.

These Trump disasters reinforce one another.

• Tariffs raise prices and force businesses to close

• Deportations create labor shortages and raise prices, which in turn forces more businesses to close.

• Fewer government services reduce efficiency, resulting in less help for the ever-growing population of those in need.

• Tariffs, deportations, war, and botched foreign relations isolate the U.S., reducing its power, influence, and economic strength, reinforcing America’s domestic disasters.

This shift reflects Trump and the Republicans moving the U.S. government from Long-Term Orientation to Short-Term Orientation (Geert Hofstede).

Long-Term Orientation focuses on the future and produces benefits for decades. Short-Term Orientation focuses on tradition and quick results, even if it means a worse future.

For 80 years, America built its wealth and power through long-term interests in trade, alliances, and institutions. Trump and the Republicans have thrown that away for short-term political gain and personal wealth.

They have also changed the government from moderate Motivation Towards Achievement and Success (Geert Hofstede) to the extreme. This dimension concerns how much a culture values success, results, and competition, compared with care for others and quality of life.

American culture has always valued competition, achievement, material success, and individual ambition, yet its leaders understood that nations could compete and still benefit from cooperation.

Under the Trump-Republican regime, trade and diplomacy are treated as contests, and there can be only one winner. It is no longer a ‘rising tide lifts all ships’; it is now “I win, and you lose.”

This cultual shift in government focus results in isolation and a loss of power militarily, diplomatically, and economically, and in increasing poverty for the nation. This is not easily or quickly reversible.

The problem is that a future president can:

• remove a tariff but not change a trade agreement between other nations that purposely bypassed the U.S.

• replace federal employees, but not restore decades of institutional experience overnight.

• promise allies that America will honor its word, but not immediately build trust that takes decades.

None of this proves that American decline is permanent. Better decisions could repair some of the damage, but while Trump’s policies can be reversed, their consequences cannot.

This week we will examine what those choices cost Americans, how they affect American power, and what the country could look like in the next few years.

Get a solid understanding of Trompenaars’ cultural dimensions by purchasing the guide or subscribing to Cultural Perspective (free or paid) and receiving the guide for free.

Trump is attacking America’s trading partners. Putin is attacking Russia’s neighbors. Xi Jinping is trading with the world. One strategy wins, and the others lose.

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Like most nations in the past, Russia’s leaders have relied heavily on military force to control neighboring countries. Russia never evolved past that. It is the only great power that has not embraced the cooperative mindset. Only briefly, beginning in 1985 under Gorbachev and Yeltsin, did Russia move toward cooperation and prosperity. Putin brought Russia back to its aggressive roots, attacking Georgia in 2008 (Medvedev was technically president), seizing Crimea in 2014, and launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 (NATO).

In the post WWII age of cooperation and prosperity, the Soviet Union sent troops into Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 to crush political challenges to Moscow’s control. The Soviet Union used force to occupy or control Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Today, Putin demands political and territorial concessions from neighboring countries and uses military force to impose his demands (CSIS).

The nations Russia bullies and invades pay a price, but so does Russia. It pays in two ways:

• Directly, through war financing, the cost of occupation, destruction from attacks, and penalties other nations impose, such as sanctions and trade bans (SIPRI; European Commission).

• Indirectly, through the revenue it loses by not trading peacefully (Council of the EU).

Three cultural theories help explain Russia’s longstanding reliance on coercion to control neighboring countries and impose its demands.

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America spent 80 years building its power through cooperation. Trump and the Republicans have destroyed that. They now use military force, economic coercion, and threats to compel other countries to obey. The same tactics Russia has used for generations. (Reuters)

After World War II, the United States drove the establishment of the United Nations, NATO, international financial institutions, and the modern global trading system. (U.S. Department of State; U.S. Department of State; World Bank)

America built alliances, opened markets, and gave other countries economic and security reasons to cooperate. American businesses gained customers, American workers gained jobs, and American influence expanded. America became the richest and most powerful nation in the world, by a very large margin.

America also invaded countries, overthrew governments, and violated the rules it helped establish. But trade, diplomacy, and international institutions remained central to American power.

Trump and the Republicans have ended that. They have turned the U.S. into an aggressor nation, similar to Russia, and, like Russia, the U.S. will lose power and become poorer.

Trump’s Iran war is a case study. In 2015, Obama, five major powers, and several other nations negotiated an agreement ending Iran’s nuclear bomb program, restricting its entire nuclear program, and establishing international inspections. (U.S. Department of State)

Trump abandoned that agreement in 2018, and in February 2026, American and Israeli forces carried out a sneak attack on Iran. The resulting war disrupted global energy supplies, drove up fuel prices, damaged the American economy, weakened its military, alienated its allies, and put Iran in a stronger position. (U.S. Department of State; Reuters; Reuters; Reuters)

We see the same pattern with Trump’s handling of NATO, relations with Canada, and every other friendly nation, global institutions, and international diplomacy in general. (Reuters; Reuters)

The results are predictable. America spent decades building the global system and strong alliances. Trump and the Republicans are tearing them apart, and America’s former partners are fighting back. In less than 2 years, Trump and the Republicans have made the U.S. an adversary of most nations. American allies (what’s left of the alliance) are retaliating with tariffs on American goods and building trading and alliance networks that specifically exclude the U.S. Diplomacy works around America, and international institutions look to China for funding and stability. (Reuters; Reuters; Pew Research Center)

What happens to the U.S. as it loses allies?

• it is left out of trade agreements

• becomes diplomatically isolated

• its military weakens

• it becomes poorer.

We know because it’s what happens to all modern nations that choose coercion instead of cooperation: they become weaker, poorer nations that play a decreasing role in global affairs.

This is exactly what’s happening now to the U.S. because Trump and the Republicans have chosen to put the U.S. on the Russian path of coercion, aggression, weakness, and poverty.

The Trump Republican regime’s pivot from cooperation to coercion will destroy America.

Friday’s Edition will look at Russia and the cultural drivers behind its generations of coercive action.

Get a solid understanding of Trompenaars’ cultural dimensions by purchasing the guide or subscribing to Cultural Perspective (free or paid) and receiving the guide for free.

Nations have two broad ways to build power.

Throughout history, empires and nations gained power through coercion, conquering and controlling territory. The Mongol Empire became rich by sending armies across Asia; Rome’s wealth came from armies invading Europe and North Africa; the British Empire and its wealth came from armies conquering and colonizing 1/4 of the world. (OpenStax, Mongols, 2023.; OpenStax, Rome, 2023.; National Army Museum.; Britannica, 1902.)

These empires also traded, but they were built and maintained primarily by force. Those targeted for invasion fought back, fought for independence while occupied, and pursued independence when the conqueror could no longer control them.

There is another way. Trade and cooperation. China’s Song dynasty opened its ports to foreigners and became wealthy through trade. Trade that did not require armies to take and control territory. (Columbia University; Chen, 2025.)

In India, Calicut grew rich from spice trading. Its rulers collected income from merchants connecting the port to markets. Calicut did not need to occupy and control its overseas trading partners. (Sen.; Kerala Tourism.)

Along Africa’s Swahili coast, cities such as Kilwa grew wealthy by connecting African goods with markets in Arabia, India, and China. (UNESCO.)

These states and trading cities also fought and conquered, but they were built and maintained primarily through trade. Those targeted for trade traded willingly, and they also prospered.

Conquest and control use invasion, military threats, coups, economic pressure, and other means to compel compliance.

Trade and cooperation use trade, investment, and agreements that give both sides reasons to participate.

Every major power combines these approaches. The balance between them shapes how other countries work with them. Whether they seek closer relationships, reduce their dependence, or prepare to defend themselves.

After World War II, the world changed. Trade and cooperation became the norm because international rules and institutions let countries build wealth and power through trade and cooperation. (WTO.; World Bank, 2020.)

World trade grew roughly forty-fivefold between 1950 and 2025 (WTO), and wars between countries fell significantly. The benefits of trade were uneven, and participation did not guarantee prosperity, but it shifted the world away from coercion toward cooperation and, overall, made the world richer. (World Bank, 2020.; World Bank, 2021.)

To facilitate this, many nations committed to Universalism (Trompenaars), where rules apply equally (more or less) to all nations, and every nation generally follows them. It was not perfect. The United States did not always follow the rules, and the Soviet Union combined participation in international institutions with coercive control over its neighbors. (ICJ, 1986.; Office of the Historian.)

Europe is a concrete example. In 1950, the Schuman Declaration proposed combining French and German coal and steel production to make another war materially harder. Former enemies cooperated and followed the rules because institutions set binding rules and economic incentives for cooperation. The EU developed from that process. (Schuman Declaration, 1950.; European Commission, 2026.)

Wednesday’s Edion: The U.S. and how the Trump Republican regime has pivoted the U.S. from cooperation to coercion. (White House, July 2025.)

Friday’s Edition: Russia and how it never evolved past coercion.

Saturday’s Edition China and how it is keeping its general historical legacy of cooperation and what’s next for the world as Trump pivots to coercion, and Putin pushes forward with conquest and control, while Xi expands trade and cooperation.

Those decisions determine what happens next.

Get a solid understanding of Trompenaars’ cultural dimensions by purchasing the guide or subscribing to Cultural Perspective (free or paid) and receiving the guide for free.

What does the world look like if China accomplishes all of its goals, including the things it says it will not do?

The era in which the United States and the West set the agenda, excluded less powerful nations, and relatively easily extended their power and influence will end.

If China meets its goals, the tide turns and peace returns;

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China has made it clear, in writing, what it will do. It has also made it clear, in writing, what it will not do.

What China wrote in the national security white paper, 12 May 2025, should make the world feel safer and more secure. This is the first national security paper China has written, and it gives three pledges:

1. Never seek hegemony

2. Never expand

3. Never seek spheres of influence

This means Beijing does not want to be a controlling global power as the U.S., Soviet Union, Britain, France, et al. were in the past. Nor does it have a desire to expand its territory (it does want territory that was taken from it returned - see below). In fact, Beijing is saying it is not even interested in influencing other nations.

Beijing published only a short English summary of the paper, and it did not include the three pledges. Those who read only the English summary missed an important message.

The 24 July 2019 national defense white paper (the most recent) sets goals for the armed forces:

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Western governments, particularly the U.S., describe China as a country preparing to take territory, spread communism, and control world trade. But that's not what China is planning. We know this because:

• China plans; it is Long-term Oriented (Hofstede)

• It communicates in detail; it is a Slow Message Culture (Hall)

• It works together as a unit; it is Collectivist (Hofstede)

If we read the documents that Chinese leaders are writing to guide China over the long term, then we know the direction it is headed.

The three documents below make it clear that China is focused on jobs, schooling, health, food, energy, and air quality. Not taking territory, spreading communism, and controlling world trade

The 15th Five-Year Plan, adopted on 12 March 2026.

The plan sets clear goals for research spending, unemployment, life expectancy, years of schooling, grain capacity, energy capacity, carbon intensity, air quality, water quality, and forest cover.

It does not set economic growth targets. Reading between the lines (High Context Communication), which is how China’s culture communicates, explains even more: A plan specifying forest cover to one decimal place but not setting economic growth rates makes it clear where Beijing’s focus is.

The 20th Party Congress work report, 16 October 2022.

The Communist Party of China is working to create a strong, modern socialist country. National defense appears in the report, in a short section on modernizing the armed forces by 2035 and a passage on Taiwan where the Party states it will not rule out the use of force.

It also discusses international influence. The document does not describe what “influence” means, but other documents state that China is asking for:

• Security Council enlargement favoring developing countries

• Intergovernmental negotiations kept as the only channel for Council reform

• IMF quota share adjustment

• World Bank shareholding review

and several other equally exciting requests. The bottom line: they want a larger vote in existing institutions such as the IMF and World Bank.

The Third Plenum resolution, 18 July 2024.

This sets the date for the reforms: 2029, the 80th anniversary of the People’s Republic. The subjects are markets, the tax system, banks, regional development, and the courts. All domestic Chinese affairs.

This is where China is putting its energy, finances, and time. This is good news for the world because the goals that extend beyond China’s borders, such as carbon intensity, air quality, and forest cover, benefit all of us.

As China increases its food production, it buys less on world markets, making more available to poorer countries that import food.

Research spending produces technology other countries buy and use.

Asking for UN Security Council enlargement favoring developing countries gives smaller countries a larger say and makes a more equitable world.

A government spending its money on schooling, hospitals, food and clean air is spending it on making people’s lives better.

Friday’s Edition looks at the military and global aspirations.

Get a solid understanding of Trompenaars’ cultural dimensions by purchasing the guide or subscribing to Cultural Perspective (free or paid) and receiving the guide for free.

For most people in the West, China is a mystery, and given China’s increasing economic, diplomatic, and military power, they want to know what China will do.

Europe paints China as an economic threat that competes unfairly. The United States paints China as a military threat bent on taking over the world.

But what is China saying?

China’s government publishes its plans. Five-year plans, long white papers, and separate departments each issuing their own documents. If we want to know what China is going to do, all we need to do is listen and read a little (or a lot).

Two cultural differences that help us know the direction China is heading are Fast Messages vs. Slow Messages (Hall) and Individualism vs. Collectivism (Hofstede)

• A fast message is a headline, slogan, press release, memo, or bulleted list. It is quick to send and quick to read but contains less information.

• A slow message is a book, a hundred-page plan, a white paper running tens of thousands of words; it’s time-consuming to read but provides much more information.

Western governments communicate in Fast Messages, and China communicates in Slow Messages. Therefore, we know more about China’s plans because of their longer Slow Message communication.

• Individualism is a culture built around the person. People act for themselves, speak for themselves, and are judged on what they personally achieve.

• Collectivism is a culture built around the group. People act as part of a group; the group’s goals matter more than any one person’s, and people are judged by what the group achieves.

Western governments communicate as individuals. A leader makes a campaign promise to attract votes, but they are not required to keep it. Even if a campaign promise becomes policy, the next leader is not required to continue that policy.

China communicates as an organization. The Party issues the policy. The commitment belongs to the organization. Officials come and go, and the policy stays in force. We know more about China’s plans because their commitments extend beyond the people who made them.

Slow Messages and Collectivisms work together to give us a solid idea of where China is headed.

Six documents give us a solid understanding of China’s trajectory:

The 15th Five-Year Plan, adopted by the National People’s Congress on 12 March 2026, covering the economy, technology, and spending.

The 20th Party Congress work report, 16 October 2022. The Party’s own statement of where the country is going, and by when.

The Third Plenum resolution, 18 July 2024. The Party's plan for the economy at home, with every reform task due by 2029, the 80th anniversary of the People's Republic.

The national security white paper, 12 May 2025, is the first one China has issued. It states what China will not do.

The national defense white paper, 24 July 2019 (the most recent). The dated military milestones.

The global governance white paper, 17 June 2026. What China asks of other countries and institutions.

So why is none of this well known? Most people read the English versions of these documents. The English versions differ from the Chinese. In one case, Beijing’s English version inserted a year that isn't in the Chinese version. Secondly, they are long documents, and Westerners, Americans in particular, are used to Fast Message communication that doesn’t require a long attention span.

The good news is that China’s intentions are focused on China and a commitment to international institutions (no desire to take over the world). This reinforces my optimism for the future.

Wednesday’s Edition: China’s commitments: Internal growth, the environment, more say in international institutions.

Get a solid understanding of Trompenaars’ cultural dimensions by purchasing the guide or subscribing to Cultural Perspective (free or paid) and receiving the guide for free.

If the U.S. held free and fair elections, there would be no doubt the Republicans (and Trump’s power along with them) would be swept aside during the midterms on three November. We already know Trump and the Republicans have rigged the elections: there will not be free and fair elections. They have:

• redistricted mid-decade

• restricted who can vote

• attempted to stop mailing ballots

• threatened intimidation tactics at polling places

• seized ballots from a county election office

• sued more than 30 states to get their voter rolls

• threatened to prosecute election officials

• called for Republicans to “take over the voting”

• refused to commit to accepting the results

• used a federal immigration database to flag voters as noncitizens

• cut federal election security support to the states

• ordered an investigation of ActBlue, the Democrats’ main fundraising platform

• delayed the release of a federal voting machine security study

Despite their efforts, they may still lose, and Trump and the Republicans are setting the groundwork for that as well. Based on past actions, this is what Trump and the Republicans are likely to do.

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Imagine the Supreme Court rules that Trump and the government no longer have to follow due process: give a reason or retaliatory actions, follow published rules, or hold a hearing before taking away a benefit. Here is what happens, based on what other governments have already done.

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Do the Americans want a repressive, authoritarian-style government such as Russia, North Korea, or Turkey, or a free America?

The 5th and 14th Amendments of the U.S. Constitution, along with court interpretations, are key components of maintaining a free America. Trump and the Republicans would like them to go away. The latest iteration was Trump attempt to ban CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House.

Authoritarian control depends on punishing people arbitrarily, without explanation, and with no recourse for those targeted. That’s exactly what the amendments and court cases protect against in the U.S. Currently, before the government takes away a benefit, the Due Process Clause in the 5th Amendment requires it to give the reason, follow published rules, and allow those targeted to respond. If Trump and the Republicans can get the appeals courts or the Supreme Court to uphold Trump’s press ban (a lower court blocked it with a temporary restraining order on September 24), it weakens the law that protects all Americans.

Here is a small sample of what Trump could do with that power:

• End the payments of a retired worker who spoke at an anti-Trump rally.

• Revoke a journalist’s passport while she is reporting abroad, which leaves her unable to travel.

• Fire a career scientist the day after her research contradicts a White House statement.

• Revoke the license of a local television station owned by a network that criticizes Trump.

• Cancel a university’s research grants the day after its students protest the administration.

• Revoke the status of a voter-registration group before an election. Donors lose their tax deduction, and the group loses its funding.

Without the protections currently in place, Trump and the Republicans can effectively put down most political opponents. And that’s exactly what they are testing with the latest press ban. The administration has lost most of these fights. That is not a reason to relax. That's why the protections matter. In each loss below, a judge stopped the government because it skipped the reasons, rules, or hearing that due process requires. In the two cases it won, the targets lost their access or were deported. The administration keeps testing because it needs only one Supreme Court win to set a rule that applies to every American. Here is the pattern:

• November 2018: The White House revoked CNN’s Jim Acosta’s pass after he argued with Trump at a press conference. Judge Timothy Kelly ordered the pass returned because the White House violated Acosta’s due process rights. Trump lost.

• August 2019: Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham suspended Playboy reporter Brian Karem’s pass for 30 days. A federal appeals court ruled the White House violated Karem’s due process rights. Trump lost.

• February 2025: The White House barred the Associated Press from the Oval Office and Air Force One after the AP used “Gulf of Mexico.” An appeals court let the ban stand. Trump won.

• April 2025: A lower court ruled the administration’s deportation of Abrego Garcia to El Salvador violated due process. The Supreme Court ordered the government to facilitate his return. Trump lost.

• March 2025: Trump signed an executive order against the law firm Perkins Coie. Judge Beryl Howell struck it down because, among other items, it violated due process. Three other targeted firms also won. Trump lost.

• 16 May 2025: The Supreme Court ruled that deporting Venezuelans under the Alien Enemies Act with about 24 hours’ notice violated due process. Trump lost.

• May 2025: DHS revoked Harvard’s certification to enroll international students. Judge Allison Burroughs blocked it the next day because it violated due process. Trump lost.

• June 2025: The Supreme Court let the administration deport migrants to third countries without the notice and review a lower court had required. Trump won.

• 12 January 2026: Judge Amit Mehta ruled the Energy Department violated the equal protection guarantee of the Fifth Amendment when it canceled clean energy grants based on how states voted in 2024. Trump lost.

• 27 August 2026: Judge Rita Lin ruled the Pentagon’s designation of the AI company Anthropic as a supply chain risk violated due process. Trump lost.

This is not a comprehensive list.

Due process is a cultural choice written into law. It is Trompenaars’ Universalism in practice, where the government follows the law. The other choice is Particularism, where the government decides the law based on who the target is. Universalism and Particularism are reinforced by GLOBE’s Power Distance: whether a society expects power to be shared and leaders to answer to the public, or accepts that those at the top rule without explanation. Low Power Distance societies expect equal treatment and a say in government. A government that punishes people without giving reasons or a hearing is acting on High Power Distance.

This is the choice America must make: a free, Universalist, Low Power Distance government and society or a Republican, Particularist, High Power Distance dystopia.

The upside is that when culture drives the outcome, we have a good idea of what will come next.

Friday’s Edition: America’s choice: Trump - anger, threats, and revenge or America - institutions, law, and dignity.

Get a solid understanding of Trompenaars’ cultural dimensions by purchasing the guide or subscribing to Cultural Perspective (free or paid) and receiving the guide for free.